For Some Reason The NFL Draft Seems Awfully Lame This Year

If you have any questions about the definition of the word "lame," these guys could probably point you in the right direction.
Normally I am friggin geeked for the NFL Draft by the Thursday before the big day. I've read every mock draft and reviewed them with a fine toothed comb (making witty comments to myself like, "you idiot Don Banks, there's no f'n way Rodgers-Cromartie falls out of the top ten. This isn't the CFL draft!" And I laugh and I laugh...) and have listened to enough of Mel Kiper's predictable speaking cadence that I can finish his sentences with proper voice inflection. This year I'm just not all that into it. I don't know whether it's the teams at the front of the draft or the players coming out, but for some reason this draft just lacks a certain umph.

My guess is that the reason the Draft is lacking this year is because the players at the front of the draft are completely unknown quantities. The only one anyone really has any familiarity with is Darren McFadden and he's not even in the discussion at 2 or 3. Instead we've got a the Tyler Hansborough of D Ends (gritty, motor guy with a big heart) and one of the most talented D lineman in recent memory whose limbs are apparently constructed out of wet toilet paper. Even the top QBs don't have a ton of marquee value because none of them (other than my draft favorite, Chad Henne) are from programs anyone's ever watched. The WRs suck the RBs have a ton of depth (all the way through Mike Hart who is projected in the 4th/5th) and the real playmakers (like DeSean Jackson and Aqib Talib) have been red flagged to death. Other than Chris Long and Jerod Mayo, there's not a player in this draft that people seem to like. I hate to admit it but we may have reached our saturation point for NFL Draft information. There's so much out there about these kids that when the Pats pick their guy, I'll be so confused as to how to feel that I'll probably be emotionless. All that being said, it won't stop me from picking my over and underrated guys in this draft and project the first 15. While I didn't do too badly picking the over and underrated guys (in fact, I was f'n dead on) I sucked at picking the draft last year but I still enjoyed it so I'm doing it again. Here goes something....

Overrated:
1. Glenn Dorsey - if he's healthy, he's Warren Sapp. He's never healthy.
2. Vernon Gholston - Mike Mamula says hello.
3. Devin Thomas - JuCo kid with 6 catches in 2006. One year at Mich. St. and he's a first rounder?
4. Limas Sweed - Mike Williams part deux.
5. Felix Jones - The guy is 5'10" 205lbs. He's almost my size. I could not play in the NFL.
6/7. Joe Flacco / Brian Brohm - Great peripherals and disappointing college careers, unless you count eating. Joe Flacco could give Jared Lorenzen a run for his money in a pudding eating contest.

Underrated
1. Rodgers-Cromartie - Big, fast, great hands and raw. He may be the first shutdown corner to come out of the draft since DeAngelo Hall.
2. Clady / Alberts / Otah / Williams - The OTs in this draft are gonna be good.
3. Jerod Mayo - He's a physical specimen and played tremendous in the toughest conference in the NCAA.
4. Calais Campbell - I have a man crush on him. 6'8", athletic and tore through the ACC two years ago.
5. Chad Henne - He reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck. So I guess he'll play on an above average team in a bad conference and not win a big game, just like college!
6. Rashard Mendenhall - First jewish running back in the NFL.

NFL Draft Projections
1. Miami Dolphins - Jake Long

2. St. Louis Rams - Glenn Dorsey

3. Atlanta Falcons - Vernon Gholston

4. Oakland Raiders - Chris Long

5. Baltimore Ravens - Sedrick Ellis

6. New York Jets - Matt Ryan

7. Cincinnati - Darren McFadden

8. Kansas City - Chris Williams

9. New England - Branden Albert

10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins

11. Buffalo Bills - Devin Thomas

12. Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady

13. Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah

14. Chicago Bears - Rashard Mendenhall

15. Detroit Lions - Keith Rivers

16. Arizona Cardinals - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

17. Kansas City - Derrick Harvey

18. Houston Texans - Aqib Talib

19. Philadelphia Eagles - Jerod Mayo

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DeSean Jackson

21. Washington Redskins - Malcolm Kelly

22. Dallas Cowboys - Leodis McKelvin

23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jamaal Charles

24. Tennessee Titans - Devin Thomas

25. Seattle Seahawks - Mario Manningham

26. Jacksonville Jaguars - Calais Campbell

27. San Diego Chargers - Kenny Phillips

28. Dallas Cowboys - Marcus Harrison

29. S.F. 49ers - Gosder Cherilus

30. Green Bay Packers - Antoine Cason

31. New York Giants - Brandon Flowers

If I have time tomorrow or Saturday, I'll give some explanations for all of this but for now I'm sticking to it.

Real "Myths" of the NFL Draft

Todd McShay of Scouts.com (by way of ESPN.com by way of ABC by way of Disney by way of a cartoon mouse on a steamboat) recently wrote a little ditty intending to "debunk" some perceived "unspoken rules" of the NFL draft. Unfortunately, these "rules" (or "theories" or "myths" or whatever you want to call them) sucked. Not because McShay wasn't correct in his assessment of their value, but because they weren't really "myths" at all. In order for something to be a myth, someone must believe it. No one I know has heard of the "myth" that offensive tackle is the safest position or that safeties and tight ends aren't worthy of higher picks or that cornerbacks are devalued because of the chuck rule. In fact, that last one is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Cornerbacks are valuable because they are good. If you have a great cover corner like a Champ Bailey and you need a corner, are you going to not draft him and take an Offensive Tackle instead because the chuck rule might make the defensive back less effective? If a player is talented, you take him because he's better than everyone else. No matter how much they change the rules, it's still helpful have a cover guy who is better than everyone else. So in keeping with my neverending desire to shoot my mouth off about everything draft related, I'm going to provide people with some actual myths, or at least stupid things that people do when analyzing drafts. So sit back and let my words massage your mind.

Myth No. 1 - Draft Experts Are Good at Mock Drafting
If we were as successful at our jobs as draft experts are at theirs, we'd be fired or incarcerated. In a pretty decent article written 3 years ago, Art Bietz (ironically of Scouts.com) reviewed just how wrong the first round Mock Drafts are (in 2003 experts were right 10% of time, or were 90% wrong). My friend is a dentist. If he was wrong (or even close to wrong) 90% of the time, he'd be working in Mexico.... and probably doing pretty well. If you think that Dietz's sample size is too small, look at last year's draft, Kiper only got 4 picks correct and that's giving him the Ngata pick, which he had to the right team at the wrong slot. And that's all that Mel does!. Anyone can learn all the players' names and read statistics from a sheet in front of them on draft day. It would seem the skill--assuming there is one--is in correctly identifying what a team should and will do with their pick. If you can't do that, are you really analyzing anything? And if you aren't analyzing anything, what are you doing? Reading aloud?

Myth No. 2 If you pick the same position in the first round two years in a row, you can never select that position in the draft ever again. Ever.
This "myth" strikes me as the dumbest myth ever. The theory goes that if you draft a position too many times in the first round and it doesn't work out, you should take anything but that position the next year. As laid out in an earlier post, Detroit is facing this situation this year. The reason cited by the experts as to why the Lions can't pick Calvin Johnson is because they've failed in the past in picking WRs. So the logic is that because you need something and you've failed to get it, you should stop going after it, EVEN IF IT'S THE SAFEST PICK IN THE DRAFT? Isn't that the exact reason they SHOULD pick Calvin Johnson? Yes, the Lions need a ton of help on defense and sure their best move would be trading down, but that's not the discussion here. The only thing I'm pointing out is that to argue that the Lions can't take a receiver because they've drafted shitty receivers is insane.

Myth No. 3 - All Teams Draft Alike
This may seem completely logical but the way the draft experts setup their mock drafts almost NEVER takes into account the different ways in which teams draft. Experts usually evaluate drafts in two ways: 1. Best talent; or 2. Team needs. The fact is, some teams just draft differently. The Pats ALWAYS take a defensive or offensive lineman and usually do it in the first round. Now the reason the Pats go that route has a lot to do with the type of value available at that slot, but as an organizational philosophy they tend to load up on young talented lineman and scrap together the rest of their team through free agency. Regardless, every year, the powers that be peg them to take a corner back or linebacker. This year will be no different. The Pats have two picks in the first round and I guarantee you that if Jarvis Moss is sitting there at 24, the Pats are gonna take him even if whichever above-average defensive back they are "supposed" to take is still left on the board. Then you have a team like the Buffalo. They're run by a bunch of out of touch octogenerians and you have NO IDEA what they're going to do, so trying to predict their moves based on team needs or talent is useless. There is no way in HELL they take Patrick Willis despite their dire needs at linebacker. They just won't, so let's move on.

Myth No. 4 - Pre-Draft Rankings Have Value
This probably belongs in the "Draft Experts Stink" section, but I think it deserves its own paragraph. The order in which the positions are ranked will not even be close to the order in which they are selected. Outside of the top QB and maybe some other players who are off the charts (like Calvin Johnson), the player rankings are useless. The players will not be selected according to the rankings and the players at the top of those rankings will not outperform those below them. The truth is a kid like Kevin Kolb is just as likely to be successful as Brady Quinn, and Michael Bush or Lorenzo Booker are just as likely to be picked right after Marshawn Lynch as Antonio Pittman. You always see a guy who is listed as the No. 3 corner or Tackle slip into the middle of the second round and then shit the bed in the NFL while the guy projected as the 7th or 8th best guy gets picked ahead of him and stars (see Logan Mankins). The rankings have much more to do with crunching numbers than actual potential impact. This provides the reader with nothing more than it would if they were ranked based according to height. If you're going to rank the players in terms of value, give us something we don't know to justify it. Do you want to know why Brian Leonard is going to be more successful in the NFL than Marshawn Lynch? I'll tell you why: Because he gives a shit, has a chip on his shoulder and is as unique a talent as any fullback/h-back that has EVER come out in the draft. I don't give a shit if Lynch can run faster and made some linebacker from Stanford look stupid. He's a prima donna, he's got serious character issues and he's a major injury risk. So don't tell me that a kid like Leonard has less value than Lynch. I won't believe it. Anyone can put these rankings together. They don't mean shit and they are as reliable as anything anyone else could put together.

Final Myth - There is any accountability for being wrong about draft picks
This goes for both experts and those who actually pick the players. As pointed out above, there is no accountability for draft experts. They could be a million percent wrong, and they'd be doing the same thing the next year. And I don't fault them for it. I'm entertained regardless. Just don't tell me these guys are "experts" when they are never correct. The greater point is that there is no accountability even for those whose JOB it is to pick the players (the GM for lack of a better title) are rarely held accountable. Matt Millen is pretty much the only person who seems to get any notoriety for making bad picks. Think about it, other than Scott Pioli and the head coach / gm combos like Holmgren and Parcells when they were doing it (and maybe AJ Smith and Ernie Accorsi before he retired), can you even name 5 other GMs in the NFL? The head coach and the player are the only ones held accountable for draft picks and player development. Eventually, even the GM gets fired when there is mass turnover or failure, but that's well after players are released and the head coaches are fired. Why do NFL front office gents get a pass? It doesn't make sense. Shouldn't they be held MOST accountable? I'm not sure if this is actually a myth or not because the idea that front offices are held accountable for draft mistakes is about as believable as the story about Mikey from the Life Cereal commercials dying after mixing pop rocks with Coke.

Maybe these were more misconceptions than "myths" per se, but seeing that McShay's "myths" were even shittier, I feel comfortable with calling them myths.

More Draft Grades and More Mel Zaniness (2 of 3)

The only report card tougher than Mel's
Continued...
Broncos
Mel's Grade: B-
Smittblog Grade: B+
I have a HUGE hard-on for Jarvis Moss. The Broncos were apparently really looking for the top DE talent on the board. It seemed that, much like myself, they recognized that his name was Jarvis Moss. So they traded up and grabbed him. Great pick in my mind. They even got an uber-talented kid in Marcus Thomas who just needs to keep his nose clean. They have a strong history with guys like that. Didn't they grab an RB a couple years ago out of the Big Ten with character issues? I hear he's tearing up the league in D-Block. They needed an LB and probably should have grabbed a WR, but Moss and then Crowder fill a need that they REALLY felt they needed to fill. They traded up again to grab Ryan Harris, which seems like a solid pick. They just kinda did right. They really aren't lacking all that many players, so grabbing two of the top ten DEs seems like a good idea.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel pretty much felt the way I did about this, but he gave them a surprisingly high mark considering they didn't really address any other needs outside of D-line. Mel's been all over the place. I would kinda like to know who Denver thought was going to take Moss ahead of them. The trade kinda seemed unnecessary. Mel says that Moss has the chance to get 10-12 sacks in the Broncos system. Huh? How does a guy capable of 10-12 sacks, in any system, get ranked behind 3 other DEs? If those guys were in the Denver system, would they get 15 sacks? Would Gaines Adams break the single-season sack record if he were in Denver? I'm not feeling you here, Mel.

Lions
Mel's Grade: C
Smittblog Grade: A-
The Lions got the best player in the draft, and one of the best prospects ever to be in the draft. They had missed on so many WRs in the past that this became a need for them. Well they didn't screw it up. Beautiful pick. Every fan in the nation is jealous that the Lions have this guy. Then they grab my favorite QB in all of the draft, Drew Stanton. Stanton is a frickin player. He's tough as nails and has a laser-rocket arm. If anyone other than John L. Smith coached that team, Stanton would have been a Heisman contender last year. They will love this guy in Detroit. They then got one of the more underrated players in the draft in Alama-Francis from Hawaii. The guy is such a good athlete scouts didn't know if he projected as a TE, DE, OG or LB. He's a freak of a talent. They didn't grab a corner capable of starting, which is odd and they didn't grab much O-line help. They could have done better but when you take take the best available at your first 3 slots AND those guys fill needs, that is not bad. And did I mention that Calvin Johson is a stud?

Analysis of Mel's Grade: How do you give these guys a C and give the Cowboys a B? Detroit got the best player in the draft. Mel LOVED CJ and he thought Detroit should take him. Mel is very sour on Stanton but is high on Edwards and Beck, YET HE HAS STANTON RATED HIGHER THAN BOTH OF THEM! Analyzing Mel's draft is exasperating. He also says that 4th rounder Manny Ramirez (I'm changing Manuel Ramirez's name for him) is going to be a starting Guard in the NFl. You get a starting guard in the 4th round, the best player in the draft, the third rated QB in the draft, a freakish DE and somehow that is worse than the Cowboys drafting a QB they plan on turning into a WR and not getting any corner help. Let's explain this again... the Lions are not one pick away, they are a bunch.... AND THIS DRAFT HELPED THEM. The Cowboys WERE one pick away, AND THEY FUCKED IT UP.

Packers
Mel's Grade: C+
Smittblog Grade: B
This is a tough grade to give out. Especially for people who see the Packers as a team that needs to simply build their offense around Favre and he will lead them to the playoffs. I'm sorry, you could give Favre LT, Chad Johnson, Gates and Wes Welker (who is universally loved for some reason) and the Packers wouldn't finish above .500. They are not that good. They need to rebuild. The Packers need defensive help in the worst way. They gave up the 7th most points in the league last year and while much of that was due to Favre lobbing the ball to the other team, a major reason was that their defense was shitty. Harrell is a great pick. You can NEVER have enough D-line help. They then got a VERY underrated back in the Brandon Jackson (one of those universally loved players who never never broke the "big board" for no good reason) and picked up a solid TE replacement for Bubba Franks in Rutgers product Clark Harris. I don't really understand why they didn't take a single cornerback when their pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, but maybe they just aren't concerned about it.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel really thought the Pack should help out the O, so his grade seems to fit pretty well. He liked Brandon Jackson, which is probably the only reason they got a C+. Mel would have had them take Meachem, then trade up for Jarrett, then trade all of next year's draft for Sydney Rice. Since Mel and I differ philosophically about this, I can't fault his analysis, just his sanity.


Texans
Mel's Grade: C-
Smittblog Grade: A-
I'll freely admit that this probably isn't my most rational grade, but I really think Okoye is one of the top 5 players in this draft and for the Texans to steal him at 10 is a joke. Their D-line right now is young, big and UBER talented. People really underrate Mario Williams because he isn't Reggie Bush or Javon Kearse, but you just wait, the kid is going to be a force. The Texans also grabbed a big and fast WR in Jacoby Jones who has talent coming out of his ass. I really liked their late round lineman picks (especially Kasey Studdard of Texas, a first-team All Big Ten Guard who people rate very low even though all he's ever done is produce) and got good value with Bennett at corner in the 4th. Brandon Harrison is my favorite pick though. He's a free wheeling safety from Stanford who is always around the ball. The only reason he graded low is because of his 40 time, which shouldn't affect his productivity in the least. Maybe the Texans should have tried to trade up and grab good corner value in the second round, but they did very well with their picks.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel HATED Okoye at 10. Even though he was clearly the best player left on the board and EVEN THOUGH Houston DESPERATELY NEEDED D HELP and EVEN THOUGH the corners that Mel wanted them to grab would have been a reach at this slot, Mel didn't like Okoye. Ok Mel, I can live with that. But Mel says that Houston didn't help Shaub out, but on the next pick they had, a third rounder due to the Schaub deal, they took a big, strong, fast WR. What the fuck did you want them to do? They do need a lot of O-line help and a great corner or safety to help out Dunta Robinson, but in the 3rd, Jones was easily the best value for their needs. Mel let the Okoye pick define their whole draft. He didn't like it, and like a petulant child he found reason to hate every other pick. Idiot.


Colts
Mel's Grade: B-
Smittblog Grade: A
Wow. Now this is a fucking draft. Their first 4 picks must've left every team other than the Chargers and Pats sending their scouts out for the '08 draft because no one else really has a chance in the AFC (and hence the NFL because the NFC doesn't field a single competitive team). They get Gonzalez, easily the most underrated player in the draft and a PERFECT replacement for Stokley. THEN, after Tony Ugoh inexplicable falls out of the first round and continues falling in the second round they move up to grab him (giving up their 1st rounder next year, which will likely be the 30th pick). THEN, they get Daymeion Hughes from Cal. You may remember Hughes from such awards as Pac Ten Defensive Player of The Year in 2006. That's decent recognition. The kid is a playmaker. So three great picks... AND THEN THEY GET PITCOCK FROM OSU! That kid is a run stuffing specialist who puts out more effort than any D lineman taken before or after him. He fell because of his "measurables," despite his outstanding senior year. I also like Clint Sessions from Pitt but he was more gravy than anything after those first four. Outstanding run of picks for the champs.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel raves about the Colts draft (saying that the Texans should use it as an example. Yes, a great of example of how to get a B- on Mel's draft card), yet he gives them such a weak grade. The only bad thing Mel had to say about their entire draft was that safety Brannon Condren was a reach in the fourth round. The Colts may have needed a safety earlier than the Troy State kid, but I don't think you can possibly say because they didn't get him that they had a bad draft. Their draft was fricking terrific, and this coming from a guy who hates the Colts.

Jaguars
Mel's Grade: C
Smittblog Grade: A-
The Jags wanted Reggie Nelson, they traded back with Denver and still got him. They then got one of my favorite players in the draft in Justin Durant. I think that kid is going to light it up in the NFL. I also really like the WR pick of Mike Walker from Central Florida and DT Derek Landri in the 5th. Those were terrific value picks to offer some serious depth at some need positions. Since Jax didn't really need to do anything other than grow up (and grab a safety), this draft was a huge success. The only reason I didn't give them an A+ was because they drafted a punter in the 4th round. That's absurdly high for a punter. I guess when you don't really need anyone, you can kind of just F around.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: In my mind, Jax could have drafted bags of shit and still gotten a B. They really could have just taken huge risks in this draft and done very well. Instead, they addressed their biggest need with a great playmaker, grabbed a potential stud LB from in Durant and then just kinda addressed some depth needs and special teams help. Mel actually seemed to like this draft. Again, he didn't really suggest that they should have done something different. He just was luke warm about what they did. I don't get it.

Chiefs
Mel's Grade: C
Smittblog Grade: B+
I am so surprised by how good the Chiefs draft was. They whiffed big time by not picking an O-lineman early with Shields and Roaf gone, but maybe they think Kelvin Sampson will be healthy and they don't need one. I can't BELIEVE they grabbed a WR in the first round and his name wasn't Ted Ginn. That really blows me away. What a great pick he was. They then went ahead and grabbed not one but two of the top five DTs in the draft to plug up their horrendous run D. They didn't have enough picks to deal with all of their holes but they upgraded SIGNIFICANTLY on D and O. Even the Kolby Smith RB pick was good. He stepped in for Michael Bush and nary missed a beat last year. He's a hardnosed runner and if he can get enough carries and KC shits the bed next year, they could trade Larry Johnson for a king's ransom in the offseason. The only real problem I have with this draft is if they had known that they could get Tank Tyler in the third they could've taken a top corner like MacCauley in the 2nd. That would have been an A draft. My grade is probably a little low because I know that Bowe will be underused and that KC will implode this year under Herm, who is easily the worst coach in the NFL.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel didn't have much to say about KC's draft. In his final mock he had them taking DT Justin Harrell and he had Bowe as the 23rd best player in the draft. So it would seem that getting two of the top 5 DTs AND Dwayne Bowe would fit with his idea of what he thought they should do. Judging from his comments, it seems that what he most upset about was the selection of kicker Justin Medlock. Says Mel: "Justin Medlock is a good place-kicker, but I would have taken Mason Crosby." There's your "C" apparently.

Dolphins
Mel's Grade: C
Smittblog Grade: D-
Holy shit this was a bad draft. They were a sure fire F until the picked the Center Satele from Hawaii and Kelvin Smith from the 'Cuse. Satele was their only good pick. and I'm saying that even though I LOVE Lorenzo Booker on the right team. People forget that Booker was probably the most highly recruited running back EVER to come out of high school. He played on some horrible FSU teams and shined whenever he could. Booker makes no sense on Miami. He should have gone to the Giants or Seattle or some other team that needed a change of pace guy out of the backfield. I really think he has the potential to shine and Miami is not the place for him. I don't want to get too far into this as the Ginn pick has been addressed ad nauseum but I don't think they did their self any good service by grabbing John Beck. If you watch his highlight tapes, his receivers were so wide open that his completion percentage (almost 70%) is low compared to what a good QB would have done against that competition. It also doesn't help that he's 25 (and a mormon), so they had better hope he gets good quick. What a stupid, stupid draft this was.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel gave them the same grade as the Lions and Jags, and gave them a BETTER grade than the Texans. Well of course. It's not like the passed on the future of their franchise for a guy who will NEVER PLAY A DOWN IN THE NFL BECAUSE HE HAS A LISFRANC INJURY. I can't even explain how bad a pick this was. There was a chance that Ginn would slip out of the first round because of his injury. After this pick, the starting place should have been an F- considering the NEEDED a QB more than any other position. But then to not take a defensive player until the fourth round and not take an O-tackle the entire draft? What the fuck were they thinking? I have no idea how Mel justified giving them a C. Mel said John Beck helped Miami "salvage their quarterback situation." Right. You'll convince me of that right after you convince me that Mormon "prophet" Joseph Smith wasn't a con man and criminal.

Vikings
Mel's Grade: B+
Smittblog Grade: A-
Vikings fans must be so psyched right now. Their team just got really young and exciting. Top RB in the draft, underrated STUD WR in Sydney Rice, Tarvaris running the show (he defines excitement if nothing else) and they stole McCauley with the 72nd pick when he was a borderline first rounder. It would be really cool to be a fan of this team after this draft. I loved what they did. My only gripe is they got a little WR happy and should have gone for a little more O-line or D-back depth.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel was a little overly excited for the Vikings considering where he had people ranked. I know he's not a fan of Tarvaris Jackson so I'm a little surprised he wasn't more upset about skipping Quinn but he also fell back in love with Peterson after the draft, which is nice. Minnesota didn't exactly "need" an RB, but they got a stud. Mel's grade doesn't really match up with where he had these players graded but it was just nice to see him say something even remotely positive about this draft.

Patriots
Mel's Grade: B
Smittblog Grade: C-
By trading their first round pick for next year's, the Pats were kinda saying that they don't need to get younger this year, which is a complete lie. They needed to get younger at LB, CB, Safety and could have used some help with O-line depth. Instead they grab the immensely talented but troubled Meriweather (with the gun charges and stomping history in the FIU brawl) and really get only two other players who may make an impact: USC's Lua in the 7th was a very solid pick and my personal favorite (and future favorite Pats jersey) Justin Hairston from D 1AA Central Connecticut College. This guy was out of control on the 1AA level. He had 4 games over 200 yards and a 300 yard game. He reminds people of Brian Westbrook, and that's never a bad thing. My low grade also stems from the fact that I don't like the Moss trade. I know they only gave up a 4th round pick to get him, but it's like befriending the really successful hothead broker from work with the absurd expense account and have him join your already solid group of friends. Sure he has the potential to add to the collective good times of your friends and could get you guys tickets to things and into places you never imagined going to, but he also has the potential to pass along his coke habit and get the otherwise reputable guys arrested for accessory in the murder of half a dozen tranny hookers. He's too combustible to take such a risk.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: This is such a cop out grade. Mel did not like this draft by the Pats at all and didn't love the Moss pick. He just respected the value of the 4th round pick for Moss and the first rounder next year they got from San Fran. Considering he hated every other pick, that's not good enough to justify a B grade.

Saints
Mel's Grade: B-
Smittblog Grade: C
I thought all that New Orleans needed was some D-backfield help and some linebacking youth. I kind of missed the need for a WR with Horn gone, but I thought they had some decent WR depth. Maybe I was wrong but considering that there was some decent depth in the second round for WRs and only the top 3 corners were off the board when they picked at 27, I would have gone corner there. That may just be splitting hairs though. What I really didn't like was the Pittman selection and the Young & Alleman picks in the 3rd round. I would never have given up that late second rounder to Detroit with so much need in the d backfield. And then to take Antonia Pittman over a need like LB in the 4th just doesn't make any sense to me.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel liked the Meacham pick because he was the best available player. I won't discuss just how hypocritical this argument by Mel is considering what he's said about other teams, but let's just say that he has not applied this reasoning over the entire draft. He didn't really like the Young pick, was suspect on the Jones and Mitchell picks but thought there was value in Alleman and Bushrod (I will likely own this jersey by the time my fantasy draft rolls around). He also really didn't have a problem with the Pittman pick because it provides depth in the backfield. Because they didn't need depth anywhere else at the top of the fourth round, eh?

Giants
Mel's Grade: C-
Smittblog Grade: B
I am kind of blown away that they didn't grab an LB other than Zak Deossie (who for the life of me I thought was the son of former WWF wrestler "The Million Dollar Man" until I realized that that was Ted Debiase. I'm dead serious.). Ross was a very good pick in the first round and Steve Smith was another great pick. Amani Toomer isn't going to be able to point out first downs forever. If I were The Giants, I would have packaged some picks to move up to the front of the third and picked up Buster Davis or McCauley, but this was Reese's first draft and you knew he wasn't going to do anything that risky. The Jay Alford pick is a little weird but not even close to as sketchy as the TE in the 5th. What the hell was that about? In the fifth you can still get great interior line depth or a small school flier on a corner. You take a projected backup TE? Weak.

Analysis of Mel's Grade: Mel's grade here stems SOLELY from his unwavering and uncontrollable hard-on for CENTRAL MICHIGAN'S tackle Joe Staley. His love for Staley blinded him from the fact that pocket protection was not even CLOSE to the top need of the Giants (that would be the secondary). And not only does he love Joe Staley but he acts as though replacing Luke Petitgout is like replacing Anthony Munoz. Hey Mel, Petitgout was not that good. You could tape a ham sandwich on top of a Weeble and he'd do a better job protecting the pocket than Petitgout did. Sure I think the Giants need some OT depth, but did you see their secondary? They were the worst in the NFL. Ross was a great pick and I'm even convinced that Koets (the 6th rounder from Oregon St.) could step in and start for the Giants. The biggest miss by the Giants was at LB and Mel doesn't even mention that in his review of their picks. Mel's grade and review of the Giants was the most clear indication that he can't stand it when people don't listen to him because he feels marginalized. I think he thought he'd have more of an effect over new GM Jerry Reese. Maybe he had more of an impact over Accorsi. This was a grudge grade by Mel. Very professional.

(Late) Friday Feature: NFL Draft Preview (I of III)

The draft never invites hyperbole
So since I've got finals pending and don't plan on posting a ton over the next week or so, I figured I'd create something ahead of time and post it over a period of days. My true inspiration for the next three posts is the relatively shitty coverage of the NFL draft so far. I haven't seen much I agree with at all (though I do like mock draft The Fanhouse put together). I'm putting out a three part post starting with today's fairly brief "over and under" rated players section. I should start by mentioning that I have no access to film and the only scouting I've done is watch a ton of football last fall as well read every available article I could find on players. I should also say that my major beef with the traditional draft expert analysis is that they fall into the same traps year in and year out. They create mock drafts in February and don't change them significantly even when the only news coming out of team camps about those players is negative. For instance, have you heard ANYTHING positive about Leon Hall in the last two weeks? He looked horrible in the only game that mattered his entire career--this year's Ohio State game. He played in the Big Ten, so it's not like he was facing top talent in any of the other games he played in? The Big Ten sucks. Leon Hall looks like a decent corner, but to come off the board in the top 15, you have to be--or have the potential to be--great. He is not great nor does he have the potential to be great. Leon Hall SCREAMS solid and decent. He's Otis Smith or Aaron Glenn. Whereas if you ask people about McCauley from Fresno St. or Eric Wright from UNLV, those guys have the skill set and size to be outstanding. If I'm picking a corner in this weak corner class, I'll take a size and speed guy like the Raiders did with Nnamdi Asomugha over a more prototypical guy from a great program like a Carlos Rogers any day (those guys didn't go in the same draft but Rogers was a top 10 pick while Asomugha was picked in the 30's. Asomugha went to the Pro Bowl this past year). That's probably more descrption than neccesary, but I think you get what I'm talking about. It makes sense to me anyway. Without any further adieu, here are my 7 (10 was too many) most over and under rated players in the 2007 draft:

Overrated
Get used to that stat line, Miami/Minnesota/Cleveland
1. Ted Ginn, Jr.
In the last 1 million years, has any smallish, speedy, injury-prone wide receiver EVER worked out? Santana Moss maybe, but after him you have to go back to Terry Glenn. Just ask Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers and Santonio Holmes. Plus, check out the Ohio St. Wide Receiving pedigree: Holmes, Michael Jenkins, Ginn, Jr., Glenn.... noticing a trend? (Fortunately, Gonzalez will change that).

2. Gaines Adams
This year's "Dewayne Robertson". Comes from a school that doesn't traditionally put out great players but played good competition. Decent size and is always cited as showing moments of greatness. Every now and again he can put together a dominant game. That was how people described Robertson, and he hasn't exactly produced. I remember last year, the D ends going early were big guys with flashes of brilliance and overlooked was the guy who led the NCAA in sacks because he was like 5'10. That sack leader was Elvis Dumervil and he was outstanding for the Broncos last year. Gaines is the top DE by default, not because he's that great.
3. Marshawn Lynch
Doesn't Cal always have some flashy back who ends up sucking the NFL? Marshawn Lynch is another "flashes of brilliance" guy who faded in the biggest games (USC, Tennessee, Oregon). He is also subject to a sexual assault investigation. The negatives outweigh the positives.
4. Leon Hall
I spoke about this already but in his biggest test against Ohio St., he got smoked. He is a solid player whose max potential compares favorably to that of Ronde Barber, which is high praise, but not high enough to be a top 10 pick. He's a first rounder, but isn't good enough to grab so early.
5. Joe Thomas
I may get burned badly by my Joe Thomas loathing, but his description mirrors Rob Gallery's. Great feet, outrageous athlete for his size but lacks the meanness and doesn't drive well enough on rushing plays. You want to know why Walter Jones and Willie Roaf are two of the best lineman in the last 20 years, EVERY rushing play is run to their side. Pass blocking is almost a given with them. In order to be a top 10 OT, you have to dominate. I don't think anyone has called Joe Thomas dominant. Plus, his ACL injury scares me a bit. I think he's the best Tackle available, but not the best lineman (my favorite lineman will show up in the underrated portion).
6. Paul Posluszny
His heightened draft ranking makes me so angry. I LOVED this guy two years ago. He looked like a freak. He took over games on a bad team and almost single-handedly kept a bad Penn St. team in games by pure intimidation. Then he tore his tore up his knee and looked slow and outmatched in 2006. He wants to be great and I would love to have him on my team, but not as a first rounder. He wasn't big enough to begin with (he's smaller than Sean Taylor) and his raw determination was what made him great. Now he's half a step slow. I'm not sure he'll ever regain it.
7. Brady Quinn
I've been over this before, but if Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton had gone to Notre Dame, they'd be ranked higher than Quinn. He does some things well but doesn't do ANYTHING really well. He's Ron Powlus & Rick Mirer.

Underrated
Brian Leonard = Man-crush
1. LaRon Landry
The kid is Ed Reed. A ballhawk who is completely overaggressive and a total stud. If I were ranking players, he'd be the third best player in the draft behind CJ and Okoye.
2. Amobi Okoye
This kid (he is a teenager afterall) is FLYING up the draft board. I think the Skins thought they'd be able to sneak away with him at 6 but that may not work out any longer. The kid has freakish upside. 19 years-old, tremendous athlete and smarter than anyone who has ever coached him (or ever will coach him). I LOVE this kid.
3. Ryan Kalil
Kalil will likely fall out of the first round because people are stupid. There is an unspoken rule about not taking an interior lineman in the first 20 picks because you can always find one later. Well last year the best lineman taken in the first round was Nick Mangold. Kalil is better than Mangold. If Detroit has any idea what it is doing, they will take CJ, then Kalil. That is unless some team is smart enough to scoop him up in the first round (Pioli, I'm talking to you at 28).
4. Jarvis Moss
He is he most talented DE in the draft. I don't think you'd hear anyone argue with that. He played for a big time program and his only question marks are character and "rawness". He's not Julius Peppers, but he's not that far off. I'm dead serious. He is too risky to grab in the top ten, but he should be top 15.
5. Marcus McCauley / Eric Wright - I LOVE these two guys. If the Pats can package their first round picks for Atlanta's first rounder and get one of Hotlanta's second rounders, they should grab Landry and McCauley and not look back. These guys can match up with the big receivers and run with the speedy little fucks. They are being overlooked because of the name on their jerseys, but they are going to dominate.
6. Anthony Gonzalez
This guy is polished, fast, smart and willing to gut it out over the middle. His play reminds me of Deion Branch, except he's faster than Branch. Whoever steps up and grabs him will get an automatic stud.
7. Brian Leonard
I admit that I have a biased hard-on for Brian Leonard largely due to the fact that he played his high school ball near where I grew up and he plays like his hair is on fire. He can be a feature back but will likely play second-fiddle and be a change of pace for his first year until someone gets hurt. He can do everything. He could carry it twenty times, catch it out of the backfield and serve as a Chris Cooley-like H-Back if necessary. His versatility and toughness make him too valuable to slip out of the top 35 picks.

Here's a little Landry for you, in case you weren't convinced by my praise:
Part II to come tomorrow.

New Weekly NFL Draft Feature

This new draft feature will be better than New Coke!
I love the NFL draft. Other than the beginning of the baseball season and perhaps March Madness, the Draft is my favorite event. I also love the absurd coverage and millions of mock drafts that continue to change for no reason in particular. And it is those changes that I am going to focus on. Starting this week, I will be keeping track of 3 different lists and noting the changes in those lists and the reasoning behind those changes. I'll follow the mock draft of Don Banks of SI.com, the mock draft of Todd McShay of Scouts, Inc. and Mel Kiper's Big Board. When changes to the lists are made I will try and point out the reasoning and whether or not it makes any sense or is just media hype. The purpose of this is to prove that hype and media contribute more to the changes in mock drafts than fact and measurables. Hopefully through this "study" my suspicions will be confirmed.

Also, before I go any further, I want to openly declare my love for DE out of Miami, Calais Campbell. He's 6'8", 280lbs, should run the 40 in the 4.6s and is raw as hell. Mario Williams was 6'7", 290lbs and ran a 4.66 40. If Campbell gets in that speed range, he'll go top ten. I want the Pats to take him so badly that I might start a donation jar or petition or something. Campbell is a freak. Go get him.

Anyhoo, here goes nothing.

Don Banks Mock Draft

1 DE Chris Long Virginia Sr. 6-3 266
For the time being at least, I've talked myself out of the notion that Bill Parcells will invest No. 1 overall money in a defensive tackle who may not be a great fit for the 3-4 defense that Miami eventually wants to transition to. So LSU's Glenn Dorsey is out of my top spot and Long is in. Howie Long's boy is the kind of high-intensity player Parcells loves, and you can at least defend the pick in terms of dollars, since pass rushers get paid the big bucks in the NFL. The Dolphins will obviously entertain trade offers for the No. 1 slot -- if there are any -- and Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan is the other viable candidate if Miami isn't sold on second-year QB John Beck.

2 OT Jake Long Michigan Sr. 6-7 309
The Rams took a defensive tackle in Adam Carriker with their first rounder last year, so they likely won't take Dorsey. They re-signed Marc Bulger to a long-term deal, so they can't take Ryan. They have Steven Jackson in the backfield, so running back Darren McFadden makes no sense. That means either shop the pick or take the other Long, who would immediately upgrade the Rams' offensive line, which was a source of constant concern in their disappointing 2007 season.

3 QB Matt Ryan Boston College Sr. 6-5 221
Ryan is on the rise in these, the pre-NFL Combine days, and come draft weekend the Falcons may feel fortunate if he's still hanging around when their pick arrives. If he is, he's a no-brainer for a franchise that had little hope at the game's most pivotal position last season. Should Ryan be gone, Dorsey, Jake Long or McFadden all would fill a need. In other words, the Falcons, if they win that coin flip with Oakland for the No. 3 spot, have at least four quality options to choose from.

4 DT Glenn Dorsey LSU Sr. 6-1 310
The Raiders could go a lot of different ways, including trying to shop the No. 4 pick to anyone interested in McFadden (Dallas, we're looking in your direction), taking McFadden themselves or filling the void at defensive tackle created by Warren Sapp's retirement. If they go for the latter option, it should come down to whether they like Dorsey more than they like USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who had a strong week at the Senior Bowl and has risen to a top-five grade in the eyes of many scouts.

5 OT Ryan Clady Boise St. Jr. 6-6 317
This is strictly a need pick for the Chiefs, whose glaring inefficiency at offensive line last season was apparent from Week 1 on. We had them taking Michigan tackle Jake Long in our first mock, but he's off our board this time. This is actually too high to take Clady, the second-best tackle in the draft, so Kansas City would be wise to trade down into the No. 8-12 range and try to get him there. Anyone coveting McFadden would be the Chiefs' natural trade partner.

6 RB Darren McFadden Arkansas Jr. 6-2 212
With Thomas Jones on hand, New York isn't really in need of a No. 1 rusher, but McFadden may be too tempting to pass up given that some believe he's the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. USC's Ellis and Ohio State defensive end-outside linebacker Vernon Gholston are two other sensible options for the Jets.

7 DE Vernon Gholston Ohio St. Jr. 6-4 255
Conventional wisdom says the Patriots use this pick to find Asante Samuel's replacement once their No. 1 cornerback leaves via free agency. But New England might see restricted free agent Randall Gay as Samuel's successor, and thus could use this pick to select Gholston, a pass-rushing talent who projects to an outside rush linebacker in a 3-4 defense. The Patriots need inside linebackers more than outside linebackers, but Mike Vrabel could always move back inside to make room for Gholston, and there also a chance that outside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin won't return.
* From San Francisco

8 CB Leodis McKelvin Troy Sr. 5-11 186
With No. 8 now considered too high for Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, the Ravens could address their need at cornerback, where Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister aren't what they once were. McKelvin is the top-ranked corner, but Baltimore could also find Boise State offensive left tackle Ryan Clady to be a fit if the No. 5 Chiefs pass him up.

9 DT Sedrick Ellis USC Sr. 6-1 308
The Bengals' top need would dovetail perfectly with the best available talent remaining on the board if Ellis is still around. Ellis is the kind of explosive and athletic play-making presence that the Bengals desperately need in their interior defensive line. His good work at the Senior Bowl shot him up into top-four territory on some draft boards, but for the time being we still have him rated below Dorsey among defensive tackles.

10 CB Mike Jenkins South Florida Sr. 6-0 200
With Jason David proving to be more of a nickelback than a starter, and Mike McKenzie suffering a late-season ACL injury, the Saints are desperate for help at cornerback in this draft. Jenkins gets a solid first-round grade, as does Kansas cornerback Aqib Talib. Both should be there for the choosing at No. 10 for the Saints.

11 WR/PR DeSean Jackson Cal Jr. 6-0 179
We're sticking with Jackson for the Bills, even though the other projected first-round receivers -- Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma, Mario Manningham of Michigan and Limas Sweed of Texas -- all have their strengths. Jackson isn't thought to be as polished a receiver, but he's the best vertical threat with the biggest upside.

12 OT Chris Williams Vanderbilt Sr. 6-5 318
With the retirement of Matt Lepsis, finding a replacement at offensive tackle rises to the top of the Broncos' need list. If Clady is gone, Denver could easily shift its focus to Williams, who has great size and NFL-ready footwork.

13 DE Phillip Merling Clemson Jr. 6-4 275
The Panthers have a number of needs that fit well with their draft slot. They could address their likely vacancy at offensive tackle -- where Travelle Wharton is expected to depart via free agency -- by taking Pitt's Jeff Otah, or give Steve Smith some help by selecting a receiver such as Kelly or Manningham. But Merling is a junior prospect who has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, and Carolina needs youth and more impact in its pass rush.

14 QB Brian Brohm Louisville Sr. 6-3 225
Opinion varies greatly on whether the Bears will go with a quarterback in the first round, and Brohm doesn't currently carry a first-round grade on every draft board. But the Bears can't go through another status quo year at quarterback, and the free-agent pickings are pretty slim. Unless the Bears have a strong conviction about a passer in the second round, we're giving them Brohm over an offensive tackle like Otah or a defensive tackle like North Carolina's Kentwan Balmer.

15 CB Aqib Talib Kansas Jr. 6-2 201
The Lions need an upgrade in the secondary and Talib is a proven play-maker who has prototypical NFL size for a cornerback and can also be a situational receiver on offense. The other area of need that makes sense here is offensive tackle, where Otah and USC's Sam Baker remain possibilities.

16 RB Rashard Mendenhall Illinois Jr. 6-2 203
The Cardinals are in a significant cap crunch this offseason and one of the byproducts of that situation is that Edgerrin James' return for a third season in the desert is not guaranteed. Even if James is back, don't rule out Mendenhall, who some believe will be a better NFL back than the flashier Darren McFadden.

17 DE Derrick Harvey Florida Jr. 6-4 250
With this week's news that 2004 first-round defensive end Kenechi Udeze is battling leukemia, the Vikings have even more motivation to be thinking of improving their pass rush in this year's first round. Minnesota should have its choice between Harvey and 6-foot-8 Miami junior defensive end Calais Campbell.

18 RB Jonathan Stewart Oregon Jr. 5-11 233
We could see the Texans taking Miami safety Kenny Phillips as well, but Stewart is a big, powerful runner who gives Houston its long-term starter in the backfield once the stop-gap Ahman Green era is over.

19 S Kenny Phillips Miami (Fla.) Jr. 6-2 203
The Eagles could make Donovan McNabb happy by taking their highest-rated receiver here -- Manningham, Kelly or Sweed -- but that's rarely the Philly way. A defensive end like Campbell or choosing Phillips, the eventual replacement for 34-year-old free safety Brian Dawkins, is more likely.

20 WR Mario Manningham Michigan Jr. 6-0 188
The Bucs offensive line could get their first-round attention, but given head coach Jon Gruden's tendency to fall in love with offensive play-makers, Manningham or Oklahoma's Kelly are a more likely bet. Manningham doesn't have Kelly's prototypical NFL receiver size, but he's got a track record as a play-maker.

21 WR Malcolm Kelly Oklahoma Jr. 6-4 215
The Redskins have tried to go the small-receiver route without much success. Kelly is 6-4, 215 pounds and scouts rave about his fluid moves and the strength and reliability of his hands. If Washington doesn't go for a receiver in Kelly or Sweed, Campbell or Otah would fill first-round worthy needs.

22 RB Felix Jones Arkansas Jr. 6-0 205
If the Cowboys don't package their two No. 1's in an effort to move up and take Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, maybe they'll sit tight and settle for the Hogs' other play-making rusher. Jones would replace Julius Jones, and become the new half of the Marion Barber-Jones backfield tandem.
* From Cleveland.

23 OT Jeff Otah Pittsburgh Sr. 6-5 339
The Steelers have needs all along the offensive line, and Otah, who played collegiately at Heinz Field, is a good value pick who they are very familiar with. Though he's 6-5 and 339 pounds, Otah is both nimble and athletic and scouts believe he'll continue to improve early on in his NFL career.

24 WR Limas Sweed Texas Sr. 6-4 219
Sweed will likely end the run of first-round receivers at four, and we can't resist the notion of reuniting him with his former Longhorns quarterback, Vince Young. Sweed reaggravated a wrist injury at the Senior Bowl and that bears monitoring, but given the Titans' need for receiving options, he's too good to pass up.

25 TE Fred Davis USC Sr. 6-4 234
The Seahawks would love to set themselves up for the post-Shaun Alexander era with this pick, but McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart and Jones are all gone, so Seattle must address other areas of need. Davis is the only first-round tight end in the draft, and he'll give the Seahawks passing game a threat in the deep middle the way Jerramy Stevens once did.

26 DE Calais Campbell Miami (Fla.) Jr. 6-8 279
The Jaguars' pass rush needs help at right end, where Bobby McCray and Reggie Hayward are far from dominating. If Campbell slips this far into the first round, Jacksonville should roll the dice on the 6-8, 279-pound junior who gets good marks in both run defense and the pass rush. If the Jags are thinking receiver, LSU's Early Doucet and Indiana's James Hardy are the likely candidates.

27 DT Kentwan Balmer North Carolina Sr. 6-4 297
The Chargers can go a lot of different directions, but Balmer is an on-the-rise talent who's rated in the top half of the first round by some, and he'd give San Diego an eventual replacement for nose tackle Jamal Williams, who just completed his 10th NFL season.

28 CB Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie Tenn. State Sr. 6-2 181
The Cowboys need someone solid opposite cornerback Terence Newman, and the likes of Anthony Henry and Jacques Reeves really isn't getting it done. Rodgers-Cromartie had a great Senior Bowl showing despite his small-school label, and the success of his cousin, San Diego's Antonio Cromartie, also adds to the first-round buzz he has generated in recent weeks.

29 OLB Keith Rivers USC Sr. 6-3 236
The 49ers could be tempted by LSU receiver Early Doucet, USC offensive tackle Sam Baker or Boston College offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus, all of whom would fill huge needs. But Rivers is likely to be the highest-rated player left on their board, and outside linebacker is another need if they don't get into the Lance Briggs sweepstakes.
* From Indianapolis

30 OT Gosder Cherilus Boston College Sr. 6-7 312
The Packers could use an upgrade at offensive tackle, where eight-year veteran Chad Clifton had some late-season injury issues. Cherilus is a newcomer to the first-round projection game, and has risen thanks to a strong week of work at the Senior Bowl. He's probably a right tackle in the NFL, and that's Mark Tauscher's spot in Green Bay, but the Packers need some youth at tackle.

31 Pick forfeited -- -- -- -- --
The Patriots lost this pick as their penalty for the Week 1 Spygate episode.

32 CB Brandon Flowers Virginia Tech Jr. 5-11 192
The Giants top need is at outside linebacker, where Kawika Mitchell could leave in free agency, and where Mathias Kiwanuka has yet to prove he can handle the switch from defensive end. New York hopes Rivers lingers, but if he doesn't, getting a cornerback to replace Sam Madison or a safety (N.C. State's DaJuan Morgan) to take over if Gibril Wilson signs elsewhere makes sense.

Todd McShay Mock Draft

1. Miami Dolphins -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Record: 1-15 | Needs: OT, DL, ILB, CB, QB
Previous mock selection: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Assuming for our purposes that the Dolphins are unable to trade down, they will have a difficult decision to make between Ryan, DE Chris Long, OT Jake Long and DT Glenn Dorsey. Either of the Longs makes sense, considering offensive tackle and defensive line are two of the team's biggest needs. Dorsey is considered by many to be the No. 2 player in this year's class, but he's not an ideal fit for a 3-4 defensive scheme and it doesn't make financial sense to spend No. 1-type money on a lineman who will be asked to take up space. That's why Ryan makes a lot of sense.

At the end of the day, it will come down to Bill Parcells' opinion of current Miami QB John Beck, whom the former Dolphins regime drafted in the second round last year. If Parcells thinks he can win with Beck, Jake Long would be the next best option, followed by Chris Long, then Dorsey. If not, Ryan should be the selection. He has all the physical tools of a franchise quarterback and, most importantly, he possesses rare intangibles.

2. St. Louis Rams -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Record: 3-13 | Needs: DE, G/OT, CB, OLB, WR
Previous mock selection: Same
The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace and the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line in 2007-08 make Jake Long a possibility with this pick. But assuming Pace returns to form, the Rams have a much bigger need along the interior of their offensive line, and tackle can be addressed in free agency or in later rounds of the draft.

Don't be surprised, then, if St. Louis goes with the other Long at No. 2. Chris is not a prototypical edge rusher, but he is a dominant playmaker with rare versatility and a motor that never quits. The Rams could solidify their defensive line for years to come by teaming him with last year's first-round selection, DT Adam Carriker.

3. Atlanta Falcons** -- Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, OT, DT, RB, S
Previous mock selection: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Ryan should be the Falcons' selection if he is available, but if he is not, Atlanta will have to make a difficult decision among McFadden, Dorsey and Jake Long. The team has needs at all three positions, so this would be tough choice. McFadden is the top prospect on most teams' draft boards, though, so it is easy to envision this scenario playing out. McFadden could provide the type of offensive boost for the Falcons that Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings last season. That type of potential is tough to pass up.

4. Oakland Raiders** -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, DT, WR, DE, RB
Previous mock selection: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
The Raiders are financially strapped and will not want to dish out top-five money one year after selecting QB JaMarcus Russell with the top overall pick. If McFadden still is on the board, don't count out a blockbuster trade by owner Al Davis, since Cowboys owner and Arkansas alum Jerry Jones already has made his interest known. If Oakland is stuck here with McFadden gone, it will need to choose between Dorsey and Jake Long. While Long is worth the pick, Dorsey is the higher-rated player. He could provide the type of interior disruption the Raiders' defense has been lacking and fill in nicely for Warren Sapp, who announced his retirement following the 2007 season.

5. Kansas City Chiefs** -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Record: 4-12 | Needs: OT, DE, C, WR, CB
Previous mock selection: Same
Quarterback still is a question mark, but the Chiefs' No. 1 priority this offseason should be solidifying their offensive front. Long is unquestionably the most dominant offensive lineman in the 2008 class and could help Kansas City achieve its goal in a hurry. He has the versatility to play either right or left tackle, and his combination of size, technique, athletic ability and a mean streak would improve the Chiefs' line almost immediately.

6. New York Jets -- Vernon Gholston*, DE, Ohio State
Record: 4-12 | Needs: WR, NT, OLB, ILB, G
Projected pick: Same
This could be a bit of a reach for Gholston, who flashes top-10 talent in some games (three sacks against Michigan this season) but disappears in too many others. However, don't be surprised if he works his way into the top 10 simply because this year's crop of elite edge rushers does not meet the level of demand. That said, Gholston is one of the premier pass-rushing prospects in the 2008 class, and he would be the right fit as a rush linebacker in the Jets' 3-4 scheme.

7. N.E. Patriots (from 5-11 San Francisco) -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Record: 18-1 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth
Previous mock selection: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Patriots would like to inject some youth at inside linebacker, but there isn't a player worth selecting this high, with USC's Rey Maualuga and Ohio State's James Laurinaitis both returning to school in the fall. The next priority is to find a replacement for Asante Samuel, a free agent who can't be franchised for a second consecutive year. McKelvin currently is the top-rated cornerback in a 2008 crop that is deep but lacks elite talent atop the board. As always, look for the Patriots to shop this pick heavily.

8. Baltimore Ravens -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Record: 5-11 | Needs: CB, QB, OLB, LOT, DT
Previous mock selection: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Baltimore would like to use this pick to put an end to a seemingly endless pursuit for a franchise quarterback. Unfortunately, there isn't one worth selecting here with Ryan off the board. Instead, the Ravens could go with the best value on the board (Ellis) or fill a hole at either cornerback (Mike Jenkins) or left tackle (Ryan Clady). Knowing the Ravens' draft-day discipline, Ellis will be the pick in this scenario.

9. Cincinnati Bengals -- Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida
Record: 7-9 | Needs: DT, LB, OT, DE, TE
Previous mock selection: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Bengals have a much bigger need for interior help, but if Dorsey and Ellis are gone, there isn't a defensive tackle worth drafting at No. 9. Harvey is a bit of a reach here, but coach Marvin Lewis' defense is starving for potential playmakers, and Harvey possesses the pass-rushing skills and frame to develop into an impact starter in the NFL.

10. New Orleans Saints -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Record: 7-9 | Needs: CB, MLB, DT, OLB, TE
Previous mock selection: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Cornerback and linebacker are the Saints' biggest areas of need, and Jenkins is the best athlete available at those positions. His combination of size, speed and athleticism is outstanding, and his recognition skills continue to improve each season. Jenkins also brings versatility to the table, since he can play some safety and chip in on returns. If New Orleans uses this pick on a corner, it should find much better value at linebacker early in Round 2.

11. Buffalo Bills -- Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma
Record: 7-9 | Needs: WR, CB, TE, LB, DT
Previous mock selection: DeSean Jackson*, WR, California
Kelly is the type of big receiver the Bills need as a complement to current wideout Lee Evans. Kelly is unusually fluid for a bigger wideout and he might have the strongest hands of any player in the 2008 draft. However, Jackson could join forces with RB Marshawn Lynch to give Buffalo one of the most exciting young offensive skill groups in the NFL.

12. Denver Broncos -- Ryan Clady*, OT, Boise State
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, DT, S, MLB, G
Previous mock selection: Same
Clady still is improving his strength, but he possesses impressive feet to go along with his enormous wingspan and huge frame. He would be an ideal fit in Denver's famed zone-blocking scheme and give a boost to the Broncos' running game.

13. Carolina Panthers -- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Record: 7-9 | Needs: QB, DE, OT, WR, OLB
Previous mock selection: Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami
Instead of drafting a young signal-caller who will need time to develop, look for the Panthers to bring in veteran competition for current QB Matt Moore, who showed some positive signs late in the season. Drafting a defensive end like Campbell to fill a need is a possibility, but don't be surprised if the team looks to fill a hole at offensive tackle, where Travelle Wharton and Jordan Gross are set to become free agents.

14. Chicago Bears -- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Record: 7-9 | Needs: QB, LOT, DT, G, RB
Previous mock selection: Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
The Bears will have a tough decision to make if Brohm still is available at No. 14. There has been a lot of talk about the Bears going in a different direction with this pick, including offensive and defensive tackle. And while that makes a lot of sense, I still wouldn't rule out Brohm just yet. His stock is likely to soar between now and April's draft because he should impress scouts with his overall passing efficiency and football intelligence during the combine and individual workouts.

15. Detroit Lions -- Aqib Talib*, CB, Kansas
Record: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, G, CB, S, DE
Projected pick: Same
The Lions will be selecting outside of the top 10 for the first time since 2001, and now the trick is to find quality players this far down the line. The Lions' secondary is undermanned and would welcome the services of Talib, who is a versatile, fluid athlete with excellent size and ball skills. His elite athleticism was on display when returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown this season, and he also saw some snaps on offense.

16. Arizona Cardinals -- Rashard Mendenhall*, RB, Illinois
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, OLB, TE, RB, DE
Previous mock selection: Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon
The Cardinals have more pressing needs on the other side of the ball -- defensive tackle and cornerback -- but there isn't an available player at those positions who is as valuable as Mendenhall. He has the size, burst and versatility to eventually develop into an every-down starter. In the meantime, Mendenhall and Edgerrin James would make a heck of a 1-2 punch for the next year or two.

17. Minnesota Vikings -- DeSean Jackson*, WR/RS, California
Record: 8-8 | Needs: DE, WR, S, QB, TE
Previous mock selection: Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida
Believe it or not, Minnesota still is in the market for help at wide receiver and defensive end, despite investing first- or second-round picks in the past four drafts on WRs Troy Williamson (2005) and Sidney Rice (2007), and DEs Kenechi Udeze (2004) and Erasmus James (2005). Jackson still has room to improve as a route runner, and he must get stronger in order to endure a grueling 16-game NFL schedule, but his home run ability after the catch, on vertical routes and on punt returns will be tempting for teams drafting in the top 20 overall.

18. Houston Texans -- Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, RB, WR, S, LOT, G
Previous mock selection: Kenny Phillips*, S, Miami
The Texans need a featured back to go along with QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, and Stewart has the bulk, burst and versatility to quickly fill that role. He also could offer a boost in the kickoff return game.

19. Philadelphia Eagles -- Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami
Record: 8-8 | Needs: WR, TE, DE, OT/G, S, LB
Previous mock selection: Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma
Philadelphia OTs Jon Runyan and William Thomas aren't getting any younger, so Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah is a possibility here. The Eagles also are in search of a home run threat at wide receiver, so don't count out Michigan's Mario Manningham. However, there aren't that many 6-foot-8, 280-pound defensive ends with Campbell's athleticism coming out of the college ranks these days, so don't be surprised if the Eagles take a flyer on this unpolished but supremely talented end.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Mario Manningham*, WR, Michigan
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, OT, OLB, CB, QB
Previous mock selection: Sam Baker, OT, USC
Coach John Gruden will be pressing general manager Bruce Allen for a young playmaker at wide receiver, and Allen knows Manningham is capable of special things in the NFL. If Manningham gets with a coach like Gruden at the next level, he could emerge as the most productive wideout from a very talented 2008 class.

21. Washington Redskins -- Phillip Merling*, DE, Clemson
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, DE, S, OT, CB
Previous mock selection: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Sweed is a possibility here since wide receiver is on the short list of big needs for the Redskins, but Merling is a fast-rising junior prospect who is shooting up the draft boards of many NFL teams. The more we study film of him, the more we like his combination of size (6-4, 275), power and agility, and his ability to get into opposing backfields. Merling has the tools to become an impact starter in the next couple of seasons and would fill an area of need for Washington.

22. Dallas Cowboys (from 10-6 Cleveland) -- Sam Baker, OT, USC
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, WR, OT, RB, ILB
Previous mock selection: Mario Manningham*, WR, Michigan
Assuming owner Jerry Jones doesn't package picks to trade up, expect Dallas to use its two picks to address needs at corner, receiver, offensive tackle and possibly running back. Baker's stock is dropping after an injury-plagued senior season and a mediocre showing at the Senior Bowl, but he possesses the athleticism and technique to surprise a lot of people at the next level.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Record: 10-6 | Needs: OT, C, DE (3-4), G, RB
Previous mock selection: Same
The Steelers could use two of their first three picks on offensive linemen. They have bigger holes to fill inside, but Otah is far and away the best lineman available in this scenario. Interior help is available for a good value in later rounds (Oregon State G Roy Schuening, and centers Mike Pollak of Arizona State and John Sullivan of Notre Dame).

24. Tennessee Titans -- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Record: 10-6 | Needs: WR, CB, TE, WR, OL
Previous mock selection: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
The Titans need to draft a legitimate weapon for QB Vince Young to target in the passing attack, and who would be better than Young's former college teammate? Sweed could slip a bit due to a wrist injury that cut his senior season short and was re-aggravated at the Senior Bowl. However, when Sweed is healthy, he is arguably the most physically gifted receiver in this year's class. The 6-4, 217-pounder is worth the risk, in my opinion.

25. Seattle Seahawks -- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Record: 10-6 | Needs: ROT, DT, RB, TE, G
Previous mock selection: Rashard Mendenhall*, RB, Illinois
It is unlikely current Seattle starting RB Shaun Alexander will ever return to his 2005 MVP form, and backup Maurice Morris has proved to be at his best when limited to a complementary role. However, with McFadden, Stewart and Mendenhall all off the board, look for the Seahawks to go in a different direction here. Balmer is a fast-rising prospect with very good size, power and quickness. He would be a welcome addition to Seattle's thin interior defensive line.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Record: 11-5 | Needs: WR, DE, SS, CB
Previous mock selection: Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
The Jaguars should use this pick on the best available receiver or pass-rusher. Groves will be a possibility if he checks out physically at the combine. Doucet is another solid choice this late in the first round, however. While he is unlikely to emerge as anything more than a No. 2 receiver in the NFL, Doucet possesses the quickness and run-after-catch ability to complement Jacksonville's group of bigger receivers.

27. San Diego Chargers -- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Record: 11-5 | Needs: RG/ROT, NT, FB, RB
Previous mock selection: Dan Connor, MLB, Penn State
The Chargers can select the best available athlete if they want, but the right side of their offensive line could use an upgrade, and Cherilus projects as a solid starting right tackle in the NFL. Cherilus' stock is on the rise following his impressive showing at the Senior Bowl.

28. Dallas Cowboys -- Felix Jones*, RB, Arkansas
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, WR, OT, ILB, RB
Previous mock selection: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
If owner Jerry Jones can't strike a deal for McFadden, he could settle for Arkansas' other first-round running back prospect. Felix Jones is a speedster who could complement current Dallas RB Marion Barber well and provide a home run threat in the return game.

29. S.F. 49ers (from 13-3 Indianapolis) -- James Hardy*, WR, Indiana
Record: 5-11 | Needs: WR, OT, OLB, DE, QB
Previous mock selection: Same
San Francisco needs a playmaker at wide receiver to take the attention away from TE Vernon Davis and pressure off QB Alex Smith. Hardy comes with some baggage and he needs some polishing, but no receiver in this class possesses a more imposing combination of size and natural athleticism.

30. Green Bay Packers -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tenn. St.
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, OT, S, TE, PT
Previous mock selection: Fred Davis, TE, USC
Packers QB Brett Favre certainly would welcome the addition of a tight end like Davis, who can stretch the seam and generate yards after the catch. However, the team has a more pressing need in the defensive secondary, and Rodgers-Cromartie is one of the fastest-rising prospects in the 2008 class right now. The small-school product proved capable of playing with the big boys at the Senior Bowl, where he demonstrated outstanding versatility and athleticism playing both free safety and cornerback throughout the week.

31. N.E. Patriots -- Pick forfeited
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth
Previous mock selection: Same
The Patriots lost this pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally taping Jets coaches from the sideline in Week 1.

32. New York Giants -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
Record: 10-6 | Needs: OLB, CB, S, OT, DT
Previous mock selection: Same
The Giants are in need of an immediate and legitimate upgrade at linebacker, and Rivers is instinctive and athletic enough to contribute immediately on the weak side. They also could use a quick, explosive back who would complement current Giants power back Brandon Jacobs, so keep an eye on this selection.

Mel Kiper Big Board

1. *Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (6-foot-1, 208) | Previous: Same
The reasons for his dynamic performances throughout his career are excellent vision, very good balance, game-breaking speed and a passion for the game.

2. Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU (6-2, 292) | Previous: Same
Disruptive force along the interior. If there is one non-skill position player fans should watch, Dorsey is the one, because despite constant double-teams, he is always making plays or opening up space for his teammates.

3. Jake Long, OT, Michigan (6-6, 320) | Previous: Same
Top-drawer left or right tackle prospect.

4. Chris Long, DE, Virginia (6-4, 282) | Previous: Same
A 3-4 defensive end with great bloodlines who understands leverage and uses his hands as well as any D-lineman in the country.

5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (6-1, 297) | Previous: Same
Tampa Bay Bucs-style DT with superior quickness and a nonstop motor.

6. Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College (6-4, 223) | Previous: Same
He has the size and arm to wow the NFL brass during testing.

7. *Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas (6-1, 193) | Previous: Same
A game-changing cover corner who had 11 interceptions the past two seasons. Talib has outstanding recovery speed and tremendous leaping ability. He also showed his versatility by catching eight passes (four for touchdowns) on offense.

8. *Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio St. (6-3, 262) | Previous: Same
He took his play to a new level in 2007, showcasing the explosiveness to overpower offensive tackles at the point of attack. Gholston also has excellent closing speed, as evidenced by the 14 sacks he registered. He also has the versatility to play with his hand off the ground.

9. *Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State (6-5, 320) | Previous: Same
An excellent left tackle prospect with athletic ability and solid technique that will make him a great blindside protector in the NFL.

10. *Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon (5-10, 233) | Previous: Same
A strong and athletic, big running back who displays tremendous patience with the way he sets up his blocks.

11. *Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson (6-4½, 272) | Previous: Same
An underrated standout, Merling might not be as flashy as former teammate Gaines Adams (the fourth pick in last year's draft), but you can make the argument that Merling is a more complete player.

12. Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina (6-4, 298) | Previous: 14
Unbelievably talented player who had a breakout season in 2007.

13. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy (5-10½, 185) | Previous: Same
Not only a very good cover man with superior recovery ability (runs in the 4.38 range) and the aggressiveness to get the job done in run support, McKelvin has made a name for himself as the top return man in the entire nation. He's also stood out this season in games against the likes of Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma State and Georgia. With his speed and versatility, McKelvin will bring a great deal of value to a football team.

14. Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt (6-5½, 318) | Previous: 12
Top-drawer talent, possessing superior athleticism and good feet to neutralize outside pass-rushers.

15. *Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas (5-11, 202) | Previous: Same
Tremendously explosive and versatile, Jones gained a whopping 8.7 yards per carry this season, while also excelling as a kickoff returner, gaining nearly 30 yards per return.

16. *Calais Campbell, DE, Miami (6-7, 280) | Previous: 17
Physically imposing with his height and wingspan, Campbell is able to beat offensive tackles with either speed or power. He does a good job of varying his pass rush moves, while also proving to be solid against the run.

17. Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh (6-5, 339) | Previous: 18
Light on his feet for a huge bookend, Otah is still developing. He played only one year in high school and two at the junior college level. He also played basketball in junior college and is a tremendous athlete. His upside and potential are going to excite offensive line coaches in the NFL.

18. Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida (5-11½, 202) | Previous: 19
He has excellent recovery speed and the toughness you look for in a cornerback. His size allows him to match up with an opponent's No. 1 wide receiver.

19. *Chilo Rachal, OG, USC (6-6¼, 339) | Previous: 20
Tremendous size and plays with a defensive mentality you like to see. Rachal can match the speed and power of defensive ends he faces which is why he has so much upside at the next level.

20. *Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois (5-10, 224) | Previous: 21
Authoritative runner with a major league burst through the hole. Mendenhall's hard-charging style makes him difficult to get to the ground.

21. Fred Davis, USC (6-4, 253) | Previous: 22
Productive, consistent and multitalented. He's caught five or more passes in eight of 13 games while also doing a very capable job as an inline blocker. Davis stretches the deep middle of the field with big plays while bringing excellent physical and athletic skills to the tight end spot.

22. *Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma (6-3½, 219) | Previous: 23
He has the combination of size and speed that NFL teams covet, plus great hands and is a tremendous competitor.

23. Sam Baker, OT, USC (6-4½, 310) | Previous: 16
Exceptional pass-blocker with superb technique.

24. *DeSean Jackson, WR, California (5-11, 168) | Previous: Same
Exciting wideout and returner with very good natural pass receiving skills. Jackson has excellent speed and is a terrific open-field runner.

25. *Kenny Phillips, S, Miami (6-1½, 200) | Previous: Same
While he had a decent but not great season, Phillips has the skill level necessary to reach high honors in the NFL. He has excellent range and good ball skills, and he is solid in run support. Also keep in mind that safeties are in high demand in the NFL these days, and Phillips is clearly the top safety in this year's draft.

Friday Feature Part III (III of III): Smittblog Mock Draft

No more F'n around
Now for a taste of unimagination. I figured I'd better put my money where my mouth is after running off at the mouth so much about how dumb these draft experts are, so I'm throwing my hat in the ring (or insert cliche). The way I'm going to do it is to offer my opinion of what I think the team should do, and what they'll actually do. This way I'll have a better chance of being right in some capacity. That makes me twice as savvy as those retards who get paid to do this. It should be pretty easy to follow. This is not going to be funny at all. Dead serious. Not very exciting I know, but I like doing it, so F off.

1. Oakland
Should take: Jamarcus Russell
Will take: Jamarcus Russell
This is the easiest call ever. Don't let anyone tell you this isn't going to happen. Al Davis may be crazy, but he hasn't completely lost it yet. This is the only pick for Oakland.

2. Detroit
Should take: Trade with Atlanta
Will take: Calvin Johnson
The possibility of Atlanta moving up will become more apparent as Millen begins to panic about adding a potential bust in Joe Thomas or picking another wide receiver. He will desperately try and trade down and while Rich McKay and Atlanta are posturing very nicely about not wanting Johnson, this trade makes too much sense to go away. At the end of the day, the Lions likely won't consummate a trade before they pick and will pick Johnson so as to buy another hour to trade with Atlanta or just keep the pick and come away with the best player in the draft.

3. Cleveland
Should take: Adrian Peterson
Will take: Amobi Okoye
This is gonna catch some steam as next week progresses. Okoye is going to be the "it" guy going into the draft. There's not a ton not to like him. Adrian Peterson makes a ton of sense but Romeo can't afford to make a huge mistake with this pick and with the draft history of RBs at the top of the draft combined with the depth of starting RB talent in the later rounds, suring up their D is a more reasonable move. Okoye is too good to pass up and Cleveland is getting very talented on the defensive end with last year's addition of Wimbley. You get a kid who can plug the middle and share time with Mt. Washington. Cleveland will be hard pressed not to grab him. This acquisition could vault Cleveland into a top 10 D if Davis and Wimbley continue to improve. I'm not shitting you.

4. Miami (from Tampa Bay)
Should take: Laron Landry
Will take: Trade to Miami - Joe Thomas
The Bucs need more help in the secondary and no matter what anyone says, Landry is not a reach at 4. He is a difference making player in the mold of an Ed Reed. A head-hunting ballhawk. One of my favorite players in the draft. That being said, Tampa Bay will view this pick as a reach (and maybe think they can still get him at 9) and Miami would like to trade up for Joe Thomas or Brady Quinn. You don't normally trade up for an O-Tackle, but this is a dire need for Miami and they can't be comfortable with the prospect of reaching for Levi Brown. They also know Thomas is gone if AZ gets a pick. Plus, this pick will be available on the cheap. Tampa Bay will take a high round pick in next year's draft and a bag of balls for this pick once CJ gets taken.

5. Arizona
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Gaines Adams
AZ needs a ton of help all over the place, but they could really use a stud linebacker to play opposite Dansby. Timmons is the man. He's a difference maker. He's better than Willis (who no less than 10 days ago was going to the Pats at 24 but now has moved up into the top 10 after doing nothing). But Gaines Adams will be too flashy for the new blood to pass up. To their credit, AZ knows that the DE position falls off FAST after Carriker and Moss while the LB crew is probably deeper and they MAY be able to steal Beason early in the second round.

6. Washington
Should take: Jarvis Moss
Will take: Patrick Willis
The Skins have to be CRUSHED that Okoye and Adams are gone at this point. They must be just sputtering. They figured at 5 they'd have a shot at the best DE or the best DT and neither are available. They should just move down the chart to the next best D lineman, Jarvis Moss. Instead, they'll want to go after "the best" something. On their chart, that player is likely Patrick Willis--the "best" linebacker. He is "rated" ahead of Timmons and Beason (and don't even get me started about Poszluszny or whatever the F his name is. I would bet all the tea in China that P squared is a failure in the NFL. He is Andy Katzenmoyer light.). There's a chance they flirt with Brady Quinn at this slot, but that pick might cause the early heart attacks of dozens of late 20's gentlemen I know. Because I want those fellas to live long and healthy lives, I'm really hoping they don't take Quinn.

7. Minnesota
Should take: Laron Landry
Will take: Brady Quinn
Now, I've got a weird feeling that back of the draft team like Baltimore or Chicago (I really think Green Bay may make a move here... I told you it was a weird feeling) could trade up to this slot and grab Quinn. They'd have to give up some decent talent to do that. But guess what? Chicago has some decent talent to trade (Lance Briggs says hello). This type of trade NEVER happens on draft day, so it'd be highly unlikely (which is why I'm "mentioning" it rather than "predicting" it), but it is food for thought. Landry is the perfect play for Minnesota. He shouldn't have fallen this far with his talent but Minnesota doesn't "need" him enough (though they could use him). Quinn makes too much sense and the pundits will be elated with this selection, though their fans will not when he goes Rick Mirer and shits the bed for the next five years. Tarvaris Jackson should start for Minn. He's a stud.

8. Atlanta
Should take: trade up with Detroit for CJ
Will take: Laron Landry
Atlanta MAY try and move up for CJ but Detroit will likely ask for too much. If Detroit picks CJ, that still leaves them time to make a trade with Hotlanta and don't be surprised if that happens. ATL needs a ton of WR help and should consider it, but one of their glaring needs is Safety and as laid out ad nauseum by me, Landry is a no doubter.

9. Buffalo (from Tampa Bay via Miami)
Should take: trade with Buffalo - Buffalo takes Adrian Peterson
Will take: trade with Buffalo - Buffalo takes Adrian Peterson
There's no one at this slot valuable enough for Tampa and Buffalo is going to POUNCE to get in ahead of Houston to grab A Pete. This will leave Tampa with some extra picks this year and some very solid picks for next year. This team is old and it could not be better for them. With Buffalo, A-Pete is the player they want. They'll get him and he could make them a playoff team.

10. Houston
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Aaron Ross
This is a tough one. I so want to think they'll take Alan Branch here to sure up that young D-line even more, but they kinda have to take a CB. Leon Hall is way overrated and I think people are picking up on it. McCauley is my favorite CB in the entire draft. Everyone who talks about him says he'll be a steal when he goes. I've never understood why players who receive such universal praise are not selected ahead of those who are universally proclaimed "overrated." Aaron Ross is not a bad choice and will likely be grabbed to make up for the Bush / V Young debacle (to appease the UT fans).

11. San Francisco
Should take: Jarvis Moss
Will take: Adam Carriker
This is a tough spot for San Fran. My guess is that they want a tackle (offensive or defensive) and probably want to grab a WR, but they aren't going to get the same value at this spot as they will with a DE end. Branch is a consideration as is Levi Brown, but I think they go for the top defensive end on their board and it's very likely his name is Carriker. I don't need to say anymore about Moss. He's getting screwed but some team will get lucky with him. SF will flirt with Ginn badly. That will make me very uncomfortable.

12. Tampa Bay (from Buffalo via Miami)
Should take: Alan Branch
Will take: Alan Branch
Branch has taken a bit of a beating with all the hype surrounding Okoye but he's still a valuable hole plugger and the Bucs could use one of those. After not getting CJ, they trade because they are aging on D and need help on both sides of the ball. They also know that the real value for wide receivers is in the second and third rounds this year and getting a couple picks in those rounds will be more helpful than reaching for value at the top of the draft.

13. St. Louis
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Leon Hall
The Rams need help everywhere on D and would've jumped at the chance to take Branch. With him off the board, they'll take the next best player on their board. It would take a lot for Hall to fall this far down the board and if he does the Rams would be hard-pressed not to grab him. They'll also take a look at Timmons, Willis and the DE riff raff. They would be best served taking the most athletic LB, but Hall will likely be invited to the festivities and you can't let him sit at that table with his mom past 15, it'd just be embarrassing. St. Louis will be happy with this pick.

14. Carolina
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Lawrence Timmons
This should be a no brainer for Carolina. Timmons is a superbly athletic and has overachieved for his size. Many mocks have Carolina grabbing TE Greg Olsen but I can't see that happening. Carolina is a playoff team and they're passing game is the least of their problems. They are a pick or two away from regaining their foothold on the South and reaching for a TE will not be particularly helpful.

15. Pittsburgh
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Levi Brown
Brown is the safe pick and while the greatest need is LB / CB, Poszluszny and Beason will likely be too risky for the new blood in Pittsburgh to take on and the CB crop is too weak with Ross and Hall out. They need some young talent on the O-Line and Brown is the way to go. I think this will end up being a pretty easy call for the Steelers.

16. Green Bay
Should take: Greg Olsen
Will take: Reggie Nelson
This is not gonna be a popular pick. EVERYONE thinks they're gonna take Marshawn Lynch but with the NFL's new conduct policy, character counts for a TON in this draft. With Lynch's recent run-in with law enforcement and questionable character, he may get passed by. Plus, I don't think he's all that sweet. TE would be a real solid choice here but the talent of Reggie Nelson on a defense that is lacking in talent is something they won't be able to turn down. They may be able to grab TE Zach Miller in the second round or Antonio Pittman for their running game. They will not be able to find a talent like Nelson deeper in the draft. Lynch is just not worth the risk. Especially for a town like Green Bay.

17. Jacksonville
Should take: Greg Olsen
Will take: Michael Griffin
The safeties finally get some love in this draft. Three taken in the top 20. That's fantastic. Griffin is starting to get some love on a lot of draft boards and seeing that there is a steep safey drop off after him, the Jags will sure up an already solid D with the addition of this playmaker. They'll be tempted to grab Anderson or Carriker, but Griffin makes the most sense.

18. Cincinnati
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Justin Harrell
Cincy is bad at selecting defensive players, which is surprising considering Marvin Lewis is the head coach there. They've had great luck with talent on the offensive line and skill positions and are solid at the safety position, but their D-line, linebackers and cornerbacks are amongst the league's worst. Character is going to be a HUGE issue for Cincy in this draft. They can't take Jarvis Moss and will look very hard at Posluszny and Revis but in the end their need at DT will outweigh the other issues. Harrell is climbing many boards and Cincy would be smart to grab him.

19. Tennessee
Should take: Robert Meachem
Will take: Robert Meachem
This is gonna be tricky. Tennessee is on the verge of becoming very good. Two names that will pop up over and over again are Marshawn Lynch and Ted Ginn, Jr., and they will be especially tempted with Ginn, but local boy Meachem is almost assured of becoming great and is too steady to pass up. Ginn has too many "ifs" for a team so close to taking the next step. They will also take a look at Revis as a potential replacement for Pac Man (Revis is a return stud), but Meachem is the target Young needs and he would be a great fit for Norm Chow's offense.

20. NY Giants
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Paul Posluszny
This does not make the ribosomes happy. The Giants have been in desperate need of linebacking talent for a little over a decade, maybe longer. There is some decent talent still left on the board and they'd be well advised to take Beason, but Posluszny seems like such a Giant-type pick. They will probably have to look at Revis, who would work very well and SHOULD look at Wright and McCauley, but they'll go the "popular" route and grab P squared.

21. Denver
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Dwayne Bowe
The Broncos are going to be looking to upgrade at WR, LB and Safety. The Broncos need some help at linebacker with Al Wilson's unceremonious departure, Beason will likely be too great a reach for them at this spot. Bowe makes sense and would be a good fit next to Javon Walker.

22. Dallas
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Darrell Revis
This is a typical Dallas pick. Revis will take over the return role and help fortify the secondary, but he is not the best pick at this slot for them. They'd be better served with McCauley, maybe Beason and even Anthony Gonzalez. They may take a run at Tony Ugoh, but if Revis slips into this slot they'll probably grab him.

23. Kansas City
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Ted Ginn, Jr.
This is my only guarantee on the entire board. If Ted Ginn is available, the Chiefs WILL take him. I would bet almost any amount of money on it. K.C. needs help at wide receiver, there's no doubt about it. They've failed to draft a wideout every year since I can remember. They need a ton of help on the defensive side of the ball too and really should begin working on their defensive secondary, but the draw of Ginn is going to be too great for that franchise to pass up. I can't wait for them to pick him, and I can't wait to laugh.

24. New England
Should take: Brian Leonard
Will take: Eric Wright
I can't be too angry with this pick. Maroney just had serious shoulder surgery and there's no guarantee he's gonna be able to "shoulder" the load (I'm a fucking pun factory). The Jets pick next and have got to have an eye on Leonard. He's a local kid and the Jets are in dire need of some pop in their backfield. Plus, the Eagles are also reportedly eyeing Leonard and pick again before the Pats. Leonard fits the Pats very well, but not as well as Eric Wright does. With Samuels doing all his bitching, the Pats need to gain some leverage and a solid corner is the only way to go. Though I'm not going to cancel the pre-order of my Pats Brian Leonard jersey yet...

25. New York Jets
Should take: Marshawn Lynch
Will take: Jarvis Moss
The Jets are a smart bunch now. They've moved away from their past days of draft day butchery. Another year they may have grabbed a second rate CB like Houston or maybe even taken a run at a tight end like Olsen, but this is not your father's Jets. Moss is the best value here and the Jets know that D-Line talent is at a premium. Moss at 25 is a Godsend and they will jump on it.

26. Philadelphia
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Marcus McCauley
The Eagles are perhaps the most successful drafting team in the NFL. They have been drafting later in the draft these days and still accumulate great talent through it (at least on the defensive end). This is why I am confident they will grab the best corner "left" in the draft (I think he's the best in all of the draft). McCauley is a big corner and would serve Philly fans well. The Eagles will likely flirt with Brandon Meriweather and will no doubt be tempted by Jamaal Anderson, but they should jump on McCauley and I trust they will do it.

27. New Orleans
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Justin Durant
There will be a lot of pressure to take Bowe, even with all the help NO needs on D. There's a chance they will succumb to that pressure. Not that New Orleans doesn't need the wide receiving help. Other than a 7th round pick, they were a rag tag bunch on that receiveing corp. More youth on that offense would help free up Reggie and Brees and Bowe is talented enough to make a huge difference. They need too much help on D and there's too much D in this draft to pass up. Durant will endear himself to that fan group in no time flat. He will turn out to be a steal of the draft.

28. New England
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Ryan Kalil
This is just a typical "Patriot" thing to do. They'll either draft Kalil or Olsen here because they can't go through a draft without picking up an interior lineman or a TE. Olsen doesn't fit as well as some other TEs in the past, so O-Line is probably where they'll focus their attention. They will also take a good long look at Jamaal Anderson and probably skip over him.

29. Baltimore
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Justin Blalock
I don't think there's a whole lot of discussion here. Ogden may retire and the Ravens have all but signed Blalock. He's about as sure a thing outside of the Chiefs taking Ginn as there is. Blalock is one of those under the radar guys who may move up some boards as we get closer to the draft, but I think he's pretty safe to the Ravens.

30. San Diego
Should take: Brandon Meriweather
Will take: Dwayne Jarrett
This should be a doozy. The Chargers draft well, but they need a wide receiver worth throwing to. As it stands, they do not have one. A big sure-handed guy would work out great for them, Jarrett is at least big. Meriweather makes sense for them but they have to make a run at big-time receiver and Jarrett has that kind of potential.

31. Chicago
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Greg Olsen
The Bears will be a in a ton of trade discussions as we get closer to the draft but assuming they are stuck with the 31st pick, the best value is Olsen and a nice big target for that asshole of a QB they have throwing the ball. They will get some great offers as we near the draft, so I'd bet it's better than 50/50 they don't end up here. Olsen makes sense if they do.

32. Indianapolis
Should take: Brandon Meriweather
Will take: Jamaal Anderson
This is going to be a little too easy for them. Some mock drafts have Anderson going as early as 8. With as much talent as there is at the DE slot, it doesn't take too much imagination to believe that Anderson could slip this far. And if he falls this far, there is almost no doubt in my mind Anderson goes to the Colts. Meriweather would be a great pick as the Colts have shown what kind of impact a difference making safety can provide, I just don't think they'll take the risk.

So there you have it. I'll stick that up against Mel Kiper any day.