Friday, April 20, 2007

Friday Feature Part III (III of III): Smittblog Mock Draft

No more F'n around

Now for a taste of unimagination. I figured I'd better put my money where my mouth is after running off at the mouth so much about how dumb these draft experts are, so I'm throwing my hat in the ring (or insert cliche). The way I'm going to do it is to offer my opinion of what I think the team should do, and what they'll actually do. This way I'll have a better chance of being right in some capacity. That makes me twice as savvy as those retards who get paid to do this. It should be pretty easy to follow. This is not going to be funny at all. Dead serious. Not very exciting I know, but I like doing it, so F off.

1. Oakland
Should take: Jamarcus Russell
Will take: Jamarcus Russell
This is the easiest call ever. Don't let anyone tell you this isn't going to happen. Al Davis may be crazy, but he hasn't completely lost it yet. This is the only pick for Oakland.

2. Detroit
Should take: Trade with Atlanta
Will take: Calvin Johnson
The possibility of Atlanta moving up will become more apparent as Millen begins to panic about adding a potential bust in Joe Thomas or picking another wide receiver. He will desperately try and trade down and while Rich McKay and Atlanta are posturing very nicely about not wanting Johnson, this trade makes too much sense to go away. At the end of the day, the Lions likely won't consummate a trade before they pick and will pick Johnson so as to buy another hour to trade with Atlanta or just keep the pick and come away with the best player in the draft.

3. Cleveland
Should take: Adrian Peterson
Will take: Amobi Okoye
This is gonna catch some steam as next week progresses. Okoye is going to be the "it" guy going into the draft. There's not a ton not to like him. Adrian Peterson makes a ton of sense but Romeo can't afford to make a huge mistake with this pick and with the draft history of RBs at the top of the draft combined with the depth of starting RB talent in the later rounds, suring up their D is a more reasonable move. Okoye is too good to pass up and Cleveland is getting very talented on the defensive end with last year's addition of Wimbley. You get a kid who can plug the middle and share time with Mt. Washington. Cleveland will be hard pressed not to grab him. This acquisition could vault Cleveland into a top 10 D if Davis and Wimbley continue to improve. I'm not shitting you.

4. Miami (from Tampa Bay)
Should take: Laron Landry
Will take: Trade to Miami - Joe Thomas
The Bucs need more help in the secondary and no matter what anyone says, Landry is not a reach at 4. He is a difference making player in the mold of an Ed Reed. A head-hunting ballhawk. One of my favorite players in the draft. That being said, Tampa Bay will view this pick as a reach (and maybe think they can still get him at 9) and Miami would like to trade up for Joe Thomas or Brady Quinn. You don't normally trade up for an O-Tackle, but this is a dire need for Miami and they can't be comfortable with the prospect of reaching for Levi Brown. They also know Thomas is gone if AZ gets a pick. Plus, this pick will be available on the cheap. Tampa Bay will take a high round pick in next year's draft and a bag of balls for this pick once CJ gets taken.

5. Arizona
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Gaines Adams
AZ needs a ton of help all over the place, but they could really use a stud linebacker to play opposite Dansby. Timmons is the man. He's a difference maker. He's better than Willis (who no less than 10 days ago was going to the Pats at 24 but now has moved up into the top 10 after doing nothing). But Gaines Adams will be too flashy for the new blood to pass up. To their credit, AZ knows that the DE position falls off FAST after Carriker and Moss while the LB crew is probably deeper and they MAY be able to steal Beason early in the second round.

6. Washington
Should take: Jarvis Moss
Will take: Patrick Willis
The Skins have to be CRUSHED that Okoye and Adams are gone at this point. They must be just sputtering. They figured at 5 they'd have a shot at the best DE or the best DT and neither are available. They should just move down the chart to the next best D lineman, Jarvis Moss. Instead, they'll want to go after "the best" something. On their chart, that player is likely Patrick Willis--the "best" linebacker. He is "rated" ahead of Timmons and Beason (and don't even get me started about Poszluszny or whatever the F his name is. I would bet all the tea in China that P squared is a failure in the NFL. He is Andy Katzenmoyer light.). There's a chance they flirt with Brady Quinn at this slot, but that pick might cause the early heart attacks of dozens of late 20's gentlemen I know. Because I want those fellas to live long and healthy lives, I'm really hoping they don't take Quinn.

7. Minnesota
Should take: Laron Landry
Will take: Brady Quinn
Now, I've got a weird feeling that back of the draft team like Baltimore or Chicago (I really think Green Bay may make a move here... I told you it was a weird feeling) could trade up to this slot and grab Quinn. They'd have to give up some decent talent to do that. But guess what? Chicago has some decent talent to trade (Lance Briggs says hello). This type of trade NEVER happens on draft day, so it'd be highly unlikely (which is why I'm "mentioning" it rather than "predicting" it), but it is food for thought. Landry is the perfect play for Minnesota. He shouldn't have fallen this far with his talent but Minnesota doesn't "need" him enough (though they could use him). Quinn makes too much sense and the pundits will be elated with this selection, though their fans will not when he goes Rick Mirer and shits the bed for the next five years. Tarvaris Jackson should start for Minn. He's a stud.

8. Atlanta
Should take: trade up with Detroit for CJ
Will take: Laron Landry
Atlanta MAY try and move up for CJ but Detroit will likely ask for too much. If Detroit picks CJ, that still leaves them time to make a trade with Hotlanta and don't be surprised if that happens. ATL needs a ton of WR help and should consider it, but one of their glaring needs is Safety and as laid out ad nauseum by me, Landry is a no doubter.

9. Buffalo (from Tampa Bay via Miami)
Should take: trade with Buffalo - Buffalo takes Adrian Peterson
Will take: trade with Buffalo - Buffalo takes Adrian Peterson
There's no one at this slot valuable enough for Tampa and Buffalo is going to POUNCE to get in ahead of Houston to grab A Pete. This will leave Tampa with some extra picks this year and some very solid picks for next year. This team is old and it could not be better for them. With Buffalo, A-Pete is the player they want. They'll get him and he could make them a playoff team.

10. Houston
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Aaron Ross
This is a tough one. I so want to think they'll take Alan Branch here to sure up that young D-line even more, but they kinda have to take a CB. Leon Hall is way overrated and I think people are picking up on it. McCauley is my favorite CB in the entire draft. Everyone who talks about him says he'll be a steal when he goes. I've never understood why players who receive such universal praise are not selected ahead of those who are universally proclaimed "overrated." Aaron Ross is not a bad choice and will likely be grabbed to make up for the Bush / V Young debacle (to appease the UT fans).

11. San Francisco
Should take: Jarvis Moss
Will take: Adam Carriker
This is a tough spot for San Fran. My guess is that they want a tackle (offensive or defensive) and probably want to grab a WR, but they aren't going to get the same value at this spot as they will with a DE end. Branch is a consideration as is Levi Brown, but I think they go for the top defensive end on their board and it's very likely his name is Carriker. I don't need to say anymore about Moss. He's getting screwed but some team will get lucky with him. SF will flirt with Ginn badly. That will make me very uncomfortable.

12. Tampa Bay (from Buffalo via Miami)
Should take: Alan Branch
Will take: Alan Branch
Branch has taken a bit of a beating with all the hype surrounding Okoye but he's still a valuable hole plugger and the Bucs could use one of those. After not getting CJ, they trade because they are aging on D and need help on both sides of the ball. They also know that the real value for wide receivers is in the second and third rounds this year and getting a couple picks in those rounds will be more helpful than reaching for value at the top of the draft.

13. St. Louis
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Leon Hall
The Rams need help everywhere on D and would've jumped at the chance to take Branch. With him off the board, they'll take the next best player on their board. It would take a lot for Hall to fall this far down the board and if he does the Rams would be hard-pressed not to grab him. They'll also take a look at Timmons, Willis and the DE riff raff. They would be best served taking the most athletic LB, but Hall will likely be invited to the festivities and you can't let him sit at that table with his mom past 15, it'd just be embarrassing. St. Louis will be happy with this pick.

14. Carolina
Should take: Lawrence Timmons
Will take: Lawrence Timmons
This should be a no brainer for Carolina. Timmons is a superbly athletic and has overachieved for his size. Many mocks have Carolina grabbing TE Greg Olsen but I can't see that happening. Carolina is a playoff team and they're passing game is the least of their problems. They are a pick or two away from regaining their foothold on the South and reaching for a TE will not be particularly helpful.

15. Pittsburgh
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Levi Brown
Brown is the safe pick and while the greatest need is LB / CB, Poszluszny and Beason will likely be too risky for the new blood in Pittsburgh to take on and the CB crop is too weak with Ross and Hall out. They need some young talent on the O-Line and Brown is the way to go. I think this will end up being a pretty easy call for the Steelers.

16. Green Bay
Should take: Greg Olsen
Will take: Reggie Nelson
This is not gonna be a popular pick. EVERYONE thinks they're gonna take Marshawn Lynch but with the NFL's new conduct policy, character counts for a TON in this draft. With Lynch's recent run-in with law enforcement and questionable character, he may get passed by. Plus, I don't think he's all that sweet. TE would be a real solid choice here but the talent of Reggie Nelson on a defense that is lacking in talent is something they won't be able to turn down. They may be able to grab TE Zach Miller in the second round or Antonio Pittman for their running game. They will not be able to find a talent like Nelson deeper in the draft. Lynch is just not worth the risk. Especially for a town like Green Bay.

17. Jacksonville
Should take: Greg Olsen
Will take: Michael Griffin
The safeties finally get some love in this draft. Three taken in the top 20. That's fantastic. Griffin is starting to get some love on a lot of draft boards and seeing that there is a steep safey drop off after him, the Jags will sure up an already solid D with the addition of this playmaker. They'll be tempted to grab Anderson or Carriker, but Griffin makes the most sense.

18. Cincinnati
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Justin Harrell
Cincy is bad at selecting defensive players, which is surprising considering Marvin Lewis is the head coach there. They've had great luck with talent on the offensive line and skill positions and are solid at the safety position, but their D-line, linebackers and cornerbacks are amongst the league's worst. Character is going to be a HUGE issue for Cincy in this draft. They can't take Jarvis Moss and will look very hard at Posluszny and Revis but in the end their need at DT will outweigh the other issues. Harrell is climbing many boards and Cincy would be smart to grab him.

19. Tennessee
Should take: Robert Meachem
Will take: Robert Meachem
This is gonna be tricky. Tennessee is on the verge of becoming very good. Two names that will pop up over and over again are Marshawn Lynch and Ted Ginn, Jr., and they will be especially tempted with Ginn, but local boy Meachem is almost assured of becoming great and is too steady to pass up. Ginn has too many "ifs" for a team so close to taking the next step. They will also take a look at Revis as a potential replacement for Pac Man (Revis is a return stud), but Meachem is the target Young needs and he would be a great fit for Norm Chow's offense.

20. NY Giants
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Paul Posluszny
This does not make the ribosomes happy. The Giants have been in desperate need of linebacking talent for a little over a decade, maybe longer. There is some decent talent still left on the board and they'd be well advised to take Beason, but Posluszny seems like such a Giant-type pick. They will probably have to look at Revis, who would work very well and SHOULD look at Wright and McCauley, but they'll go the "popular" route and grab P squared.

21. Denver
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Dwayne Bowe
The Broncos are going to be looking to upgrade at WR, LB and Safety. The Broncos need some help at linebacker with Al Wilson's unceremonious departure, Beason will likely be too great a reach for them at this spot. Bowe makes sense and would be a good fit next to Javon Walker.

22. Dallas
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Darrell Revis
This is a typical Dallas pick. Revis will take over the return role and help fortify the secondary, but he is not the best pick at this slot for them. They'd be better served with McCauley, maybe Beason and even Anthony Gonzalez. They may take a run at Tony Ugoh, but if Revis slips into this slot they'll probably grab him.

23. Kansas City
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Ted Ginn, Jr.
This is my only guarantee on the entire board. If Ted Ginn is available, the Chiefs WILL take him. I would bet almost any amount of money on it. K.C. needs help at wide receiver, there's no doubt about it. They've failed to draft a wideout every year since I can remember. They need a ton of help on the defensive side of the ball too and really should begin working on their defensive secondary, but the draw of Ginn is going to be too great for that franchise to pass up. I can't wait for them to pick him, and I can't wait to laugh.

24. New England
Should take: Brian Leonard
Will take: Eric Wright
I can't be too angry with this pick. Maroney just had serious shoulder surgery and there's no guarantee he's gonna be able to "shoulder" the load (I'm a fucking pun factory). The Jets pick next and have got to have an eye on Leonard. He's a local kid and the Jets are in dire need of some pop in their backfield. Plus, the Eagles are also reportedly eyeing Leonard and pick again before the Pats. Leonard fits the Pats very well, but not as well as Eric Wright does. With Samuels doing all his bitching, the Pats need to gain some leverage and a solid corner is the only way to go. Though I'm not going to cancel the pre-order of my Pats Brian Leonard jersey yet...

25. New York Jets
Should take: Marshawn Lynch
Will take: Jarvis Moss
The Jets are a smart bunch now. They've moved away from their past days of draft day butchery. Another year they may have grabbed a second rate CB like Houston or maybe even taken a run at a tight end like Olsen, but this is not your father's Jets. Moss is the best value here and the Jets know that D-Line talent is at a premium. Moss at 25 is a Godsend and they will jump on it.

26. Philadelphia
Should take: Marcus McCauley
Will take: Marcus McCauley
The Eagles are perhaps the most successful drafting team in the NFL. They have been drafting later in the draft these days and still accumulate great talent through it (at least on the defensive end). This is why I am confident they will grab the best corner "left" in the draft (I think he's the best in all of the draft). McCauley is a big corner and would serve Philly fans well. The Eagles will likely flirt with Brandon Meriweather and will no doubt be tempted by Jamaal Anderson, but they should jump on McCauley and I trust they will do it.

27. New Orleans
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Justin Durant
There will be a lot of pressure to take Bowe, even with all the help NO needs on D. There's a chance they will succumb to that pressure. Not that New Orleans doesn't need the wide receiving help. Other than a 7th round pick, they were a rag tag bunch on that receiveing corp. More youth on that offense would help free up Reggie and Brees and Bowe is talented enough to make a huge difference. They need too much help on D and there's too much D in this draft to pass up. Durant will endear himself to that fan group in no time flat. He will turn out to be a steal of the draft.

28. New England
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Ryan Kalil
This is just a typical "Patriot" thing to do. They'll either draft Kalil or Olsen here because they can't go through a draft without picking up an interior lineman or a TE. Olsen doesn't fit as well as some other TEs in the past, so O-Line is probably where they'll focus their attention. They will also take a good long look at Jamaal Anderson and probably skip over him.

29. Baltimore
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Justin Blalock
I don't think there's a whole lot of discussion here. Ogden may retire and the Ravens have all but signed Blalock. He's about as sure a thing outside of the Chiefs taking Ginn as there is. Blalock is one of those under the radar guys who may move up some boards as we get closer to the draft, but I think he's pretty safe to the Ravens.

30. San Diego
Should take: Brandon Meriweather
Will take: Dwayne Jarrett
This should be a doozy. The Chargers draft well, but they need a wide receiver worth throwing to. As it stands, they do not have one. A big sure-handed guy would work out great for them, Jarrett is at least big. Meriweather makes sense for them but they have to make a run at big-time receiver and Jarrett has that kind of potential.

31. Chicago
Should take: Jon Beason
Will take: Greg Olsen
The Bears will be a in a ton of trade discussions as we get closer to the draft but assuming they are stuck with the 31st pick, the best value is Olsen and a nice big target for that asshole of a QB they have throwing the ball. They will get some great offers as we near the draft, so I'd bet it's better than 50/50 they don't end up here. Olsen makes sense if they do.

32. Indianapolis
Should take: Brandon Meriweather
Will take: Jamaal Anderson
This is going to be a little too easy for them. Some mock drafts have Anderson going as early as 8. With as much talent as there is at the DE slot, it doesn't take too much imagination to believe that Anderson could slip this far. And if he falls this far, there is almost no doubt in my mind Anderson goes to the Colts. Meriweather would be a great pick as the Colts have shown what kind of impact a difference making safety can provide, I just don't think they'll take the risk.

So there you have it. I'll stick that up against Mel Kiper any day.

1 comment:

rstiles said...

Nice breakdown....