Sunday, January 13, 2008

Was Brady Perfect? Not According To His QB Rating

This equation almost makes more sense than Tom Brady's QB rating.

There were a lot of typewritten handjobs dished out to Tom Brady after his near perfect performance on Saturday night, and deservedly so. It was arguably the best performance by a QB in a playoff game ever. And even if you aren't comfortable making that leap, it's at least safe to say that Brady had a very good game. But just how good a game did he have? Well, let's use the ol' QB rating to come up with that number. According, Brady finished Saturday's game with a 141.6 rating. That is Brady's fifth highest rating for a single game this year. But what may be of greater interest is one of the games it was not better than.

According to the QB rating, Brady had a better day on opening day than he did in the Jags playoff game. In the opener, Brady finished with a 146.6 rating in a win over the Jets. And what is really ridiculous is that by almost any objective standard, Brady's night against the Jags was better despite the lower rating. Here's the comparison:
Brady against the Jags - 26/28 (92.9%) 262 yards 3tds 0ints 141.4 rating

Brady against the Jets - 22/28 (78.6%) 297 yards 3tds 0ints 146.6 QB rating
So Brady had more incompletions against the Jets in the same amount of attempts, with the same amount of tds and 37 more total yards, or about 1.3 more yards per attempt. Essentially, QB rating is rewarding Brady for being less accurate and a little more risky in achieving the same exact result. It seems a little ridiculous.

I have no idea how it is possible to say that a game in which Brady had two incompletions in 28 attempts and threw 3tds is "rated" lower than a game in which he completed a lower percentage of passes for more yards and the same amount of Tds. It seems awfully arbitrary to weigh yards / completion more highly than completion percentage if the amount of Tds is the same.

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